The median price of a Marin resale single-family home rose above the million-dollar mark in 2016, increasing 5 percent from the previous year, a real estate information service reported.

The median price of a single-family resale home in Marin clocked in at $1,050,000 for the year, according to Irvine-based CoreLogic. The median for 2015 was an even $1 million.

Resale condos saw a 3 percent increase, hitting a median of $565,000 for the year.

Sales of both condos and single-family homes dipped. Resale home sales saw a 9 percent drop, with 2,501 homes selling, and condo sales dropped 10 percent, with 773 condos selling.

Home prices have been on a steady upward trajectory at least since 2012, CoreLogic reported. The median price was $740,000 for that year, then jumped to $859,500 in 2013, reached $969,000 in 2014 and hit the million-dollar mark in 2015.

Marin real estate agents said they felt optimistic that prices would continue upward, predicting “modest” increases.

“By modest, I mean 5 percent,” said Bob Ravasio, an agent with Coldwell Banker.

“This is more along the historical average we have had, perhaps a bit below it,” Ravasio said.

“There’s a number of reasons for it. We have been on a long run. The market has been going up for four years, and markets don’t go up forever,” Ravasio said.

Some industry figures, including Kenneth Rosen of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, have talked about a coming correction. Rosen’s remarks came more than a year ago.

If the economy takes a hit, the housing market could also feel the pain.

Additionally, rising interest rates could slow appreciation, Ravasio said.

“Buyers are definitely starting to feel the pinch,” Ravasio said.

The Federal Reserve Bank raised its benchmark interest rate in December for the first time in a year. While the Fed does not directly control mortgage interest rates, lending institutions typically raise their rates in response to a Fed rate hike.

At present, borrowers might expect to pay an interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage around 4.25 percent, Ravasio said. Interest rates vary depending on a person’s credit rating and other factors.

To illustrate the effect of the interest rate on homebuyers, “If you use a median price of $1 million and assume a 20 percent down payment, you have an $800,000 mortgage,” Ravasio said. “So a 1 percent raise in interest rates from 4 to 5 percent is going to cost the homeowner $666 more per month.”

This would mean that the homebuyer likely couldn’t afford as expensive a house, and this could lead to slower appreciation, Ravasio said.

“It’s a huge effect on buyers,” the agent said. Some homebuyers are scrambling to buy before rates go up again, he said.

Deborah Rodgers of Bradley Real Estate agreed with Ravasio’s analysis.

“Rising interest rates are putting pressure on people to buy and sell,” she said. “We have been artificially keeping them low,” referring to the fact that when the economy isn’t doing well, the Fed tends to keep interest rates down.

The agent pointed out that rates are still at a historic low.

“In 1995 the rates were 9.5 percent,” Rodgers said.

Eric McFarland, a Pacific Union agent, said the low interest rates continue to push prices upward, along with “a disproportionate supply and demand issue.”

For at least three years, Marin and the Bay Area in general have suffered from a dearth of homes for sale. McFarland said this has created a kind of Catch-22 effect.

“As prices have climbed, if you are thinking of selling, even if you are sitting on a lot of equity in your home, it becomes difficult” to find another affordable home, he said.

“The climate to sell a home might be tempting, but finding a replacement home is challenging,” so fewer people put their homes on the market, he said.

Along those lines, Ravasio commented, “Inventory is absurdly low. We have 370 homes for sale in Marin (at present) and half are in contract.”

Ravasio said the lack of inventory was one of the reasons for the dip in sales, simply because there were not as many homes on the market. Single-family home sales dropped 9 percent, according to CoreLogic.

The agent said he expects the low inventory to continue.

“I haven’t seen anything that’s going to shake it up and change it,” Ravasio said.